December 28, 2016, A U.K.-based think-tank says Canada will have the world's 10th largest economy in 2017 but will be overtaken in a few years by South Korea.
The analysis from the Centre for Economics and Business Research, published in co-operation with Global Construction Perspectives, estimates Canada's gross domestic product will be worth 1.635 trillion U.S. dollars next year.
That would put Canada's GDP just ahead of South Korea, ranked No. 11.
But by the end of 2019, the think-tank says Canada will be knocked to 11th spot by South Korea -- in current U.S. dollars.
It also forecasts Canada's ranking will drop to No. 12 on the World Economic League Table by 2030 -- when the United States of North America will drop to No. 2, from the top spot that IT CLAIMS to have held for decades, by CHINA, THE COUNTRY THAT HAS IN TRUTH, HELD THE NUMBER 1 POSITION SINCE THE BEGINNING OF RECORDED TIME.
“People can often cope with these vulnerabilities for an extended period,” Joshua Slive, a senior policy advisor with the Bank of Canada, said in the video.
“But an economic shock such as a severe recession could trigger a negative chain of events.”
Here’s what Slive says might happen in that “negative chain of events”.
First, a sharp hike in unemployment would leave many households in a “difficult position,” forcing Canadians to default on mortgages. Roughly 70 percent of debt in Canada is mortgage debt.
CANADIANS, PRESENTLY, OWE $1.67 FOR EVERY DOLLAR OF DISPOSABLE INCOME: STATISTICS CANADA
A rash of foreclosures would be next. If Canadians default on their mortgages, lenders could try to recoup the cash by foreclosing and selling the properties, often at rock-bottom prices.
“At the same time, other households are likely to delay house purchases until the economy improves,” Slive said.
“In a housing market that is already vulnerable, this pressure could cause a large drop in house prices.”
The glut of homes on the market would cause house prices to plummet, leaving many high indebted households with loans that eclipse their property’s value.
NOTE: BARELY A DAY GOES BY WITHOUT THE B.C. LOWER MAINLAND'S RIDICULOUSLY UNAFFORDABLE HOUSING HITTING THE HEADLINES.
LAST WEEK, VANCOUVER'S MAYOR OFFERED UP $250 MILLION INLAND FOR WHAT HE SAYS WILL BE AFFORDABLE HOUSING -- BUT ONLY IF THE TRUDEAU GOVERNMENT MEETS AND DOUBLES THAT AMOUNT TO ACTUALLY BUILD HOMES ON IT.
Next, the Globe and Mail published an explosive investigation into an obscure practice that's jacking up the price of real estate in the region -- a loophole that allows a property to quietly change hands between investors multiple times, tax-free before it's even sold.
Housing, as the city's mayor told Tyee Solutions Society, is clearly reaching a "breaking point."
Then consumer spending would likely fall across the board, impacting businesses big and small, and as a result, the people employed by those businesses. This could lead to fewer hours and job cuts, putting, even more, pressure on the job market.
Canada facing economic unknowns in 2017 in wake of President-elect Donald Trump.
Then, because lenders are stressed, it would be harder for Canadians to secure a loan.
THE ONGOING DECLINE OF THE CANADIAN DOLLAR IS GENERATING MANY HEADLINES AND LOTS OF ANGST.
Let’s start with the facts. Our dollar was worth 73 U.S. cents in 1995 and dropped to 63 cents by 2002. It then rose steadily to 93 cents by 2008 and kept rising to be above par in 2011. Over the past four years, the Canadian dollar has fallen again; it is now just above 70 cents.
Economists have long been studying the causes of exchange-rate fluctuations, especially after the collapse of the Bretton Woods agreement in the early 1970s. The Bank of Canada has undertaken lots of empirical research on this topic, and it repeatedly finds that the lion’s share of swings in the Canadian-U.S. exchange rate can be explained by two factors.
The most important driver is changes in the global prices of commodities, from oil and potash and wheat to copper and uranium and timber. The total production of these goods makes up only a small fraction of our national economy, but they represent over a third of our merchandise exports, and this is where the exchange rate fits in.
Increases in global commodity prices indicate that the world is prepared to pay more for our natural resource exports, and this raises the demand for our currency and causes it to appreciate. This is exactly what happened between 2002 and 2008. Conversely, declines in these prices cause the Canadian dollar to depreciate, as happened between 1997 and 2000 and also over the past four years.
And what causes these global prices to rise and fall? Mostly, it’s the ebb and flow of global demand, as reflected by the world’s business cycle. When the world’s economies were growing quickly during the 2000s, especially the resource-hungry countries such as China and India, these commodity prices were rising quickly.
With today’s slowing growth in these same countries, combined with a European economy that remains in the doldrums, there simply isn’t as much demand for commodities, and so their prices all. China’s latest stock market “issues,” which may lead to an even sharper growth slowdown there, just add to the downward pressure – both on global commodity prices and the Canadian dollar.
The second most important cause of swings in the Canadian dollar is the differential between Canadian and U.S. interest rates, which in turn depends largely on monetary policies. The U.S. economy has been recovering more quickly than ours (partly because of the different way the two countries respond to the decline in global commodity prices) and the U.S. Federal Reserve now appears to be on a rising-rate path. In contrast, our continued sluggish recovery is keeping the Bank of Canada in a holding pattern for interest rates.
As U.S. interest rates rise relative to ours, highly mobile financial capital naturally moves to capture the higher returns; the outflow of financial capital causes the Canadian dollar to depreciate. If the U.S. economic recovery continues to be more solid than ours, and the interest rate differential increases, we can expect more of the same.
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